When North Dakota Could See its First Frost & Killing Freeze

Is Colder Weather Coming?

It's hard to think about a frost or a killing freeze with temps expected well into the 80s this week (why do we start school before Labor Day again?). However, if you believe what the Farmer's Almanac has to say about this upcoming winter, it could be a nasty one. The Old Farmer's Almanac will be out with its winter forecast this week. It should be interesting to see if it mirrors the Farmers' Almanac or not. See more on that below.

(SEE ALSO: The Farmers' Almanac Winter Forecast for North Dakota)

El Nino Winter

This goes against, however, what a typical El Niño winter pattern brings us in North Dakota.  Normally, you can expect a warmer and drier winter when we go into an El Niño.  We'll see who's right or wrong.

Every year, I enjoy letting you know my fearless prediction of when I expect North Dakota will see its first snow.  Let me first preface by saying I'm not a meteorologist, but I may have missed my calling to be one.  I figure if those guys can be wrong 80% of the time, why can't I take a shot at a weather prediction now and then by looking at weather models?  Last year, by the way, I was literally off by a day in my first snow-of-the-year prediction.

I figured this year I would go one step further and let you know when we might expect our first frost and first killing freeze in North Dakota. First off, don't expect it in September. The month looks warm with above-average temps.  According to Accuweather Bismarck, we won't even see overnight lows in the 40s until late in the month, and those will be in the upper 40s. Frost advisories are issued when we expect temperatures between 32 and 36 degrees. The first frost in North Dakota typically happens in mid-September.

The First Frost & Killing Freeze 

So, when will we see our first frost and killing freeze in Bismarck, Mandan? Things will start to turn significantly cooler in October.  According to Accuweather and other models I've looked at, we could be looking at our first frost somewhere near the date of October 9th.  Our first killing freeze in Bismarck, Mandan is likely shortly thereafter, that around October 11th

Coming soon, I will share my amateur forecasting skills and give you my annual prediction of when we are likely to see our first snow.  Again, last year I was a day off.  BOOM! It may be sooner than you think. Hard to believe September is a week from tomorrow.

In the meantime, stay cool, my friends, and enjoy another week of summer weather; it looks good going into the Labor Day weekend too.